Lib Dems win Eastleigh byelection: latest
Live updates as Lib Dems hold seat while Ukip beats Tories and Labour comes fourth
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Welcome to live coverage of the result of the Eastleigh byelection. I'm going to be here for the next few hours, rounding up all the latest news, pictures and gossip, up to and including that all-important result. A declaration isn't expected until 2am at the earliest, but there'll be plenty to report between now and then, so stay with me. One of the most exciting nights in British politics of the last few years is about to begin! -
Why is this byelection so important? Three big reasons.
One: it was triggered by a Lib Dem MP, Chris Huhne, resigning after admitting to perverting the course of justice. Most byelections occur when the existing MP dies or retires. But these are exceptional circumstances. Will the Lib Dems suffer at the polls as a result? Will any of the other parties benefit?
Two: it has pitted the two coalition parties, Tories and Lib Dems, head to head in a serious contest for the first time this parliament. Eastleigh is a top Tory target and the kind of seat the party needs to win if it stands any chance of getting a majority at the next general election. But it's also the kind of seat the Lib Dems desperately need to hold on to in order to avoid a wipeout at the next election. Who will prevail?
Three: it will give the UK Independence party a chance to prove itself at the ballot box after several months of rising support in opinion polls and a high profile for its leader Nigel Farage. Farage isn't standing in this byelection, an admission perhaps that he thinks his party won't win. But it'll be intriguing to see how many of the bigger parties Ukip manages to outrank when the result comes in. -
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A total of 14 candidates have contested this seat, which as byelections go is much larger than usual.
Liberal Democrat candidate Mike Thornton, who bookies have made favourite to win, has been a parish and borough councillor since 2007 and has lived in the local area for 19 years.
Conservative candidate Maria Hutchings is a former Labour supporter who first stood as a Tory in Eastleigh in 2010, when she came second to Lib Dem Chris Huhne.
Labour's John O'Farrell is an author and former comedy writer for programmes such as Spitting Image and Have I Got News For You. He's stood for Labour before, in Maidenhead in 2001.
The Ukip candidate Diane James is currently a member of Waverley Borough Council in Surrey. -
Of the 10 other candidates, we have the obligatory appearance of the Monster Raving Loony Party in the shape of their leader Howling Laud Hope. He's a veteran of these occasions, and even stood against David Cameron in 2010. There's also the Elvis Loves Pets Party, the Beer, Baccy and Crumpet Party, and, more seriously, the National Health Action Party and the Peace Party. The BBC has a full list of all 14 candidates.
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My colleague William Green says a Lib Dem source has put the party's prospects in Eastleigh as "close, but hopeful." There's also speculation that Ukip might end up pipping the Tories and coming second. That would be much better for Ukip than all the opinion polls have suggested, and a huge upset for the Conservatives.
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If Twitter is anything to go by, the Tories gave up on winning days ago. Their candidate Maria Hutchings hasn't tweeted anything about the campaign since 15 February. By contrast, just today the Lib Dem candidate Mike Thornton has tweeted a whopping 71 times!
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All the main candidates - except the Tory, Maria Hutchings - have been tweeting about their final day of campaigning. Here's the Lib Dems' Mike Thornton:
Heading back out after a quick Twitter catchup for the final few hours before the polls close twitter.com/Mike4Eastleigh…
— Mike Thornton (@Mike4Eastleigh) February 28, 2013
Labour's John O'Farrell:Just persuaded a life-long non-voter to go and vote Labour. Unless he meets the Elvis Loves Pets candidate on the way there
— John O'Farrell (@mrjohnofarrell) February 28, 2013
and Ukip's Diane James:Voters in Eastleigh, you have until 10PM to have your voice heard. Vote for me to become your MP and make history!
— Diane James (@DianeUKIP) February 28, 2013 -
Right, the polls have been closed for an hour and counting is well under way.
With the ballot papers starting to stack up, the latest rumour - and it is only rumour - is that the Lib Dems are currently out in front, with Ukip second, the Tories third and Labour fourth. We won't know the proper result for about another three hours.
If that were true, it would be a great outcome for Ukip and a disaster for the Tories. There's some fascinating speculation on the Spectator's blog about the significance of a Lib Dem/Ukip/Tory 1-2-3. According to Isabel Hardman this would be:Good for Clegg, crisis for Cameron, victory for Nigel Farage, who will give the Tories the fright of their life. Expect open revolt in the Conservative party, and calls from backbenchers to move policy further to the right, even if the maths shows that UKIP bled protest votes from all the parties rather than right-leaning Tories.
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Please feel free to make a comment on the blog. I've received this from a reader called Newsraid, who thinks the result will be:
A mess for the Conservatives and a dull win for the Lib Dems. No doubt this a worrying time for the Conservatives and, for the first time, the leadership of David Cameron. Labour did well as they had the best candidate for the future and the next election. Ukip did well too as they took Tory votes yet again and split the vote in Eastleigh.
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One of the big stories of this byelection has been the performance of the UK Independence party.
Opinion polls suggest their support has virtually doubled during the campaign. The Guardian has a great graphic showing the results of all five polls, clearly showing how Ukip has improved while Labour has slumped.
While all the polls have shown the Lib Dems or Tories holding the top two spots, Ukip leader Nigel Farage has said earlier tonight he would be "very disappointed" if his party came third. He's either confident that all the polls were wrong and Ukip will end up in the top two, or he's preparing to eat a very public slice of humble pie. -
Labour, meanwhile, has as good as given up on coming in the top three. According to the PA, sources in the party concede that they have been "badly squeezed" in the byelection and now expect to come fourth.
Besides being more than a little humiliating for candidate John O'Farrell, this would be a rather definite thumbs-down for leader Ed Miliband's so-called "One Nation" message. Apparently Labour is planning to use a party political broadcast next week to talk about what it claims was the big theme on voters' doorsteps during the campaign: immigration. -
For a view from inside the count, the Guardian's excellent and tireless Andrew Sparrow has this to say about the Tories:
If you were to apply the "who's looking glummest" approach to electoral forecasting, then the Tories are going to come third. There's a row of about a dozen of them, wearing rosettes and sitting on the elevated benches at the back of the hall, all looking as if they are attending a funeral. Party officials still insist that it is too early to know, but they don't look as if they are anticipating a triumph.
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It's midnight, and the polls have been closed for two hours. In theory we're halfway through the count, though Mark Ferguson thinks we might not get a result until 4am. Here's some of the very latest speculation on Twitter:
Tory MP told me today that vote had 'collapsed'.Spent 90 minutes on phone, spoke to zero Tory voters. #eastleigh could be gloomy for Cameron
— Sam Macrory (@sammacrory) February 28, 2013Source at the count: UKIP looking v strong, might well have beaten Tories to 2nd. Labour in v low double digits, going to be a poor 4th
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) February 28, 2013Ironic. If Farage had stood in Eastleigh he'd have been Nigel Farage MP tomorrow.
— Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) February 28, 2013In other by-election news, LibDems have held hyper-marginal and affluent Berrylands ward in Kingston. LD vote holding up in LD/Con seats
— Mark Gettleson (@polhomepulse) February 28, 2013 -
The Labour spin machine has cranked into action:
Labour now predicting a lib victory with UKIP a clear second and an increase in the Labour share of vote.Big loser; David Cameron
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) March 1, 2013 -
Regarding my last update, Graeme Hancocks has left a comment.
Not sure that it is just "Labour spin machine (that) has cranked into action" as you put it. I seem to recall their sampling in the last six byelections at this stage was pretty accurate.
It's a fair point. Labour is basing its prediction on a "sampling" of the votes counted so far, which, as Andrew Sparrow confirms, puts the Lib Dems first, Ukip second and the Tories third. -
At last, an actual fact to report. The turnout in today's Eastleigh byelection was 52.8%. At the general election in 2010 it was 69.3%. And way back in 1994, the last time there was a byelection in Eastleigh, turnout was 58.2%.Turnout
Today's turnout is an improvement on the most recent byelection of this parliament, which took place in Corby in November 2012, and which was 44.8%. It's also an improvement on the Bradford West byelection of March 2012, which was 50.0%. -
According to Andrew Sparrow, Keith House, the Lib Dem agent at Eastleigh, has declared victory.Lib Dem agent: We've won -
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Eastleigh shows "our message is resonating" says Labour's Chuka Umunna unconvincingly #eastleighby Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 1:06:14 AM -
Labour is enjoying seeing the Tories potentially beaten into third place by Ukip. Here's Tom Watson, the deputy chair of the party:
The single most important conclusion from tonight: David Cameron has never won a general election. If he can't win #Eastleigh he never will.
— tom_watson (@tom_watson) March 1, 2013
And here's John Prescott, former deputy prime minister, with a jibe at Tory chairman Grant Shapps:Agent Shapps. Mission accomplished. Over. Return to Labour HQ and await further instructions. Over. Your career is. Over #bbctw
— John Prescott (@johnprescott) March 1, 2013 -
A declaration is still expected sometime around 2am. Meanwhile people on Twitter are easing the pain of the wait in familiar fashion:
Fox News reporting a late surge for Romney. #Eastleigh
— Jack Tindale (@JackTindale) March 1, 2013If the Tories come third in #Eastleigh tonight, I blame (in no particular order) Labour, G Brown, Snow, Rain, The Royal Wedding & Immigrants
— Éoin(@DrEoinCl) March 1, 2013 -
RT @JoelTaylorMetro: David Davis said Tories coming behind UKIP would be a 'crisis' for Cameron. Looks like we're heading in that directionby Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 1:27:46 AM
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RT @simonk133: Shapps definitely trying to wind up Hughes. Has now said 'straight choice' about four times.by Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 1:32:45 AM
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Lib Dem sources at the count in Eastleigh are suggesting they have won the seat by a majority of around 2,000-2,500 votes. That'd be down on the majority they had at the 2010 general election, which was 3,864.
Ukip is saying they have come "at minimum, second", which presumably means they think they might have a chance of coming first. -
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A very good night for UKIP but let's keep things in perspective. Their best ever result is still second. #Eastleighby Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 1:50:50 AM
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It's gone 2am, which is when a result was expected to be announced. But word from the count is that we're not far from a declaration, so hopefully we'll know within the next half hour. The Lib Dems are now saying they have won with a majority of just under 2,000, while Ukip believe they are second, a thousand or so votes ahead of the Tories, who are third.
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Grant Shapps looking pale and weary as Farage speaks and result approaches #Eastleighby Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 2:15:10 AM
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RT @simonk133: Lib Dem 32.1 UKIP 27.8 Con 25.4 Lab 9.8 #eastleighby Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 2:22:51 AM
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One month after David Cameron's "game-changing" Farage-killing referendum speech, Tories come third behind UKIP #Eastleighby Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 2:25:16 AM
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Lib Dem result is good for them politically but it didn't defy the national swing. Pretty much in line with national polling.by Adam Bienkov via twitter 3/1/2013 2:34:10 AM
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